Delays + Energy price increases

[whittaker52]

I thought this might be an interesting poll/discussion to post. So with the current delays on production of ID.3 that seem to be ongoing, and the ever increasing price of energy both at home & at rapid chargers, is it just me, or is it making anyone else start to re-consider the switch to an EV right now?

[Big277wave]

Even with the temporary increases in the price of energy, your ID.3 Max will work out way cheaper than a petrol car assuming you can charge at home. Octopus Go is 7.5p per kWh, which works out at about 2p per mile. How often do you anticipate going over your 300 miles of range and needing to charge at a rapid charger? For comparison a petrol car doing 46 mpg would use 1L for every 10 miles so that's around 17p per mile at current rates. Throw in zero rate Vehicle Excise Duty and congestion charge / low emission zone exemptions and it all adds up.

[Jamie1c]

I'm sticking with my order and the bonus for me is I have free charging points (for now) 30 seconds drive from my house. I do have a charging point installed but will be taking advantage of the free chargers as I do just now.

[monkeyhanger]

If I couldn't charge at home and was reliant on public chargers at the current rates, i'd have stuck with ICE. 50p+ per kWh is diesel money,

[OB1CCFC]

The hard truth is ‘the market’ isn’t currently meeting the challenges around making EV’s more assessable and affordable as part of fighting ‘the climate emergency’. If Octopus Go changes it’s overnight tariff significantly upwards we would be in a woeful sutuation.
I’d favour a nationalised grid of DC, AC chargers with subsidised rates to encourage take up.

[sidehaas]

Because of inflation over the last 12 months and likely the 12 months coming, if you are looking at it from a purely financial position then locking in the price you ordered for should work out very well. Cancelling and reordering a new car will be much worse value.

[Repfigit]

Electricity is expensive now because dispatchable baseload power from natural gas is now so expensive. On a day when the sun is shining and the wind is blowing, electricity can still be cheap as chips. The problem comes when people want to agree a contract price for electricity that covers days when the sun isn't shining and the wind isn't blowing. On those days, the only way to meet demand is to burn natural gas and other fossil fuels in power stations, and these fuels are now in short supply.

Everyone with an EV should now be looking at time of use tariffs which mean their domestic electricity bills will track the current market price of electricity. Then they should be charging up - even to 100% - when electricity is cheap and avoiding charging at all costs when electricity is expensive. The alternative is that the government and utilities might prevent EVs charging at all during these periods.

In principle, fast charging costs at commercial charging stations could and should track the spot price too. If EV drivers value predictable charging costs so much, they should pay extra, just as large fleet operators buy their fuel in advance. Anything we can do to encourage electricity demand (including EV charging) to match renewable supply at all times is worth it. Sunny and windy days can even see excess renewable power wasted in resistor banks or free-spinning wind turbines. Every kilowatt-hour we could use up then means a kWh of gas we could store up in tanks for the days we need it.

[DumfriesDik]

I wouldn't switch. The convenience of home charging is too much of a lure for me, even with the current prices. Having waited ten months or more, I am happy to wait longer for the ID3. If it was not that car then I would look at a different BEV which for me, is very limited on Motability.

Besides, all my electric is from renewables, right?!

[whittaker52]

So, a little bit of my thought process so far - I'm currently in the fortunate position I have access to transport that I own, isn't financed and is reasonably priced to run, so doesn't really own me anything, so from that perspective i'm in no real rush for my ID.3 to arrive. That being said, when I originally placed my order, like many, I was told "oh yeah, you'll only be waiting about 6 months" which even at the time, I thought to myself "I think I can just about manage that" - I don't think i've ever had to wait this long for a car, but given the unprecedented time's we're living in, you've kinda gotta take it on the chin and either accept it, or walk away. And now, getting ever closer to 12 months, and the lack of communication from VW, let alone what seems like every Max & Tour spec car being constantly pushed back, it kinda feels like the wait will be forever on-going. Then there's the thought, soon we'll be seeing a facelifted ID.3, and after waiting so long, will our cars arrive before an announcement or will we wait and be "upgraded". You'd think until things are on a more "normal" production level, they'd delay any changes, but who knows.

Then we have the alternatives - with all the waiting, we're seeing plenty of new cars being announced, that may tick a lot of the similar boxes the ID.3 does, although then with the way things are currently with production delays, that may also play around with any alternatives too. So I guess like the above, maybe it's a bit of FOMO in play. Unless there's actual dealer stock, it's not really an alternative just yet.

When it comes to energy, i'm in the fortunate position our energy prices are locked in until this time next year at around 18p Kwh, so even if my order arrived now, it might be manageable, but given the way things are trending, the prices could be in a very different place, even in the spring, let alone this time next year & beyond.

Overall there's definitely a lot of different factors at play that kinda add to the uncertainty & frustration, that i'm sure a lot of people with orders are currently thinking/feeling. At this point i've got nothing to lose sticking with waiting, but we'll have to see how things shake out moving forward.

[turntoport]

Repfigit's response is the best and most relevant one in this thread. T-O-U charging will become the norm much quicker than people think, probably trialling large-scale before the end of this year, so using an 'intelligent' (not particularly intelligent, just a programme that fits expected consumption to expected availability/pricing) supply will become effectively mandatory. Private investors aren't going to bail-out car drivers with subsidies, those days are gone; neither will cash-strapped 'free market' governments. Get savvy with the tou stuff and costs will remain sensible.
Alternatively, you could bin your id3 order and get a cheaper ice car: what do you think it's 3-yr residual value will be? 20%? 10%? Maybe close to zero at 5 yrs? (Don't forget to add the purchase price , say ~£25k, to the p(£)pm calcs.) As the realities of the rapid effect onset of global warming bite home, legislation change is only likely to accelerate the necessary technology transition.
What will your grandkids think of you for buying a new icemobile in autumn 2022?
good luck with the choice(s)!

[Gwyver]

It's curious that the proponents of Octopus Go tariff never mention that they are charged a hefty premium for electricity used outside the very cheap time window. When I last checked, the cost/KWH for Octopous Go 'daytime' electricity was ~30% higher than for the daytime rate of an Octopus Economy 7 tariff.

I'm not suggesting that Octopus Go isn't beneficial for some, merely that any would-be users should carefully consider their ratio of EV charging consumption vs other normal household use patterns prior to opting for this tariff.

[sidehaas]

It's curious that the proponents of Octopus Go tariff never mention that they are charged a hefty premium for electricity used outside the very cheap time window. When I last checked, the cost/KWH for Octopous Go 'daytime' electricity was ~30% higher than for the daytime rate of an Octopus Economy 7 tariff.

I'm not suggesting that Octopus Go isn't beneficial for some, merely that any would-be users should carefully consider their ratio of EV charging consumption vs other normal household use patterns prior to opting for this tariff.

In normal times you're correct. However at the moment, even if there was no cheap period, the standard Go daytime tariff would be a stupendously good deal (noting that it is fixed for a year). It's cheaper than the price cap coming in October, way cheaper than where prices are heading next year, and way cheaper than any other available fixed rates.

[Turquoise]

It's curious that the proponents of Octopus Go tariff never mention that they are charged a hefty premium for electricity used outside the very cheap time window. When I last checked, the cost/KWH for Octopous Go 'daytime' electricity was ~30% higher than for the daytime rate of an Octopus Economy 7 tariff.

I'm not suggesting that Octopus Go isn't beneficial for some, merely that any would-be users should carefully consider their ratio of EV charging consumption vs other normal household use patterns prior to opting for this tariff.

I fixed at ~40p/kWh daytime on Go because I knew the 'price cap' was going up to over 50p/kWh come October. I imagine Go day rates will now rise again following the announcement today though.

[Scratch]

It's curious that the proponents of Octopus Go tariff never mention that they are charged a hefty premium for electricity used outside the very cheap time window. When I last checked, the cost/KWH for Octopous Go 'daytime' electricity was ~30% higher than for the daytime rate of an Octopus Economy 7 tariff.

I'm not suggesting that Octopus Go isn't beneficial for some, merely that any would-be users should carefully consider their ratio of EV charging consumption vs other normal household use patterns prior to opting for this tariff.

Won't be now, if the new rates announced today take affect.

[Scratch]

It's curious that the proponents of Octopus Go tariff never mention that they are charged a hefty premium for electricity used outside the very cheap time window. When I last checked, the cost/KWH for Octopous Go 'daytime' electricity was ~30% higher than for the daytime rate of an Octopus Economy 7 tariff.

I'm not suggesting that Octopus Go isn't beneficial for some, merely that any would-be users should carefully consider their ratio of EV charging consumption vs other normal household use patterns prior to opting for this tariff.

I fixed at ~40p/kWh daytime on Go because I knew the 'price cap' was going up to over 50p/kWh come October. I imagine Go day rates will now rise again following the announcement today though.

True. But we need to wait and see if the outcry about these costs actually wakes up the permanently on holiday, or just plain missing in action, UK government to do something. Maybe they will fix at today's rates. That will make the Go tariff look pricey for some, depending on how much you charge your car. I don't believe we can be sure about what will eventually be billed, until October.

[Turquoise]

It's curious that the proponents of Octopus Go tariff never mention that they are charged a hefty premium for electricity used outside the very cheap time window. When I last checked, the cost/KWH for Octopous Go 'daytime' electricity was ~30% higher than for the daytime rate of an Octopus Economy 7 tariff.

I'm not suggesting that Octopus Go isn't beneficial for some, merely that any would-be users should carefully consider their ratio of EV charging consumption vs other normal household use patterns prior to opting for this tariff.

I fixed at ~40p/kWh daytime on Go because I knew the 'price cap' was going up to over 50p/kWh come October. I imagine Go day rates will now rise again following the announcement today though.

True. But we need to wait and see if the outcry about these costs actually wakes up the permanently on holiday, or just plain missing in action, UK government to do something. Maybe they will fix at today's rates. That will make the Go tariff look pricey for some, depending on how much you charge your car. I don't believe we can be sure about what will eventually be billed, until October.

There's no exit fee on Go, so I could just switch back if things look rosier later in the year (I'm not holding my breath). I also want Go for when I have solar and a battery installed though, because then I can charge the battery on the night rate and hopefully use very little day rate at all. (I appreciate this is very niche to my own circumstances though!)

[whittaker52]

This is an interesting video that popped up on my youtube feed about the updated energy price cap, it's quite eye-opening when you lay all the figures out clearly -

[ItshardtobuyId3]

After a lot of consideration I’ve just switched from GO at 30.6p to Intelligent at 40.6p, 6 months early.

They are bound to ramp the price up to at least 52p peak in October if not more like 60p with another 50% hike predicted early next year.

If they leave it at 40p I’ll have cost myself about £90 but that seems unlikely and switching early with probably save me around £150 even though I’ll be paying more now by switching early.

If some miracle happens I can switch back to a GO to get out this new fix!

Edit: The only Octopus fixed tariffs that aren’t fit EV’s are around 72p a kWh…. So there is a pretty strong hint at what’s to come

[sidehaas]

I am in the process of doing similar - moving from Go to Go Faster so I can move my time slot back a couple of hours to include some of the early morning consumption - but the primary reason is actually to reset my contract. It puts my peak price up from 32.5p to 42.5p but it'll be fixed until the end of August instead of the end of January. I suspect Go prices will increase significantly again in the near future and there is a risk they increase the off-peak rate again too.

[ItshardtobuyId3]

I am in the process of doing similar - moving from Go to Go Faster so I can move my time slot back a couple of hours to include some of the early morning consumption - but the primary reason is actually to reset my contract. It puts my peak price up from 32.5p to 42.5p but it'll be fixed until the end of August instead of the end of January. I suspect Go prices will increase significantly again in the near future and there is a risk they increase the off-peak rate again too.

I didn’t think of GO faster. They don’t make that one so obvious to consider.

It all rather sucks but I think a preemptive strike is definitely in order. Octopus EV peak rates at the moment seem to be cap + 10p and I’d not be surprised if they changed the off-peak rate again soon to 10p. I use the national grids “when to plug in” app and an app called “carbon intensity” quite a lot to help plug in for nights when the grid is predicted green and it’s far from awash with cheap surplus energy lately.

I hope I’m wrong but I’d be surprised.